K-State vs. North Texas preview

North Texas Mean Green

 

Just... creepy.

These two teams last met in 2010, in the last game of the season.  K-State's run defense was atrocious that year, and North Texas' Lance Dunbar gashed us for 270(!) yards.  We escaped with the victory that day, 49-41.  Now the Mean Green are led by former Iowa State head coach and long-time Snyder bud Dan McCarney.  They head to Manhattan with a 1-1 record after a respectable loss to LSU in the opener  This one has the look of a snoozer, with some very sneaky match-up problems.  If K-State is looking ahead, they could very well get caught.

Players to watch
#35 Zach Orr - Linebacker.  Orr is a two time captain and led the team in tackles last season.  He played in the 2010 game and recorded 8 tackles on the day.  Much like we rely on Arthur to control the defense, the Green look to Orr for leadership.  Better believe he'll be ready for Klein, Hubert and Sams this weekend.  It'll be up to Braden to neutralize him.
#22 Antoinne Jimmerson - Running back.  In addition to having an awesome name, he's the redshirt freshmen who put up 139 yards on 15 carries last week.  He's already earning lots of comparisons to Lance Dunbar, who did such a good job dismantling our run defense in 2010.  Remember how slow our linebackers were that season?  Thank God for Arthur Brown. 
#24 Brandin Byrd - Running back.  Antoinne had the breakout performance last week, but Byrd still gets a majority of the carries.  Our linebackers better be ready and swarming or this could be a long, stressful day. 

Strengths
Offensive Line -  There are three second year starters on this line that have played together since March of 2011.  Through two games this year they have yet to allow a single sack.  Pretty impressive when you consider that their first game of the season was against LSU.  I can't imagine that our front four are stronger than LSU's, so I think the key will be sound gap protection to stymie the running game.  Hat on a hat.  And all that.
Running game - North Texas picked up their first win last week with 350 yards on the ground.  Two of their running backs finished with over 100 yards and they're coming in with tons of confidence.  Then again, if they've been watching Miami game film all week, maybe not.  Solid running backs + veteran offensive line is a winning combination, regardless of your FBS ranking.  Our linebackers will be tested.

Weaknesses
Passing game - Derek Thompson is only completing 42% of his passes so far this season.  Should be a fairly simple game plan this week for Coach Hayes.  Now it comes down to execution.
Turnovers - They've had 4 turnovers so far in 2 games.  We caused 3 last week.  If we can do it to Miami, we can surely do it to North Texas.  Big hits and good schemes should turn into lots of turnovers on the day.  You hear that Lynch Mob?  Let's boost that turnover margin.   

Amazing Hayden Fry coaching tree.  Snyder top left, Stoops bottom right, McCarney to his left.

Fun Facts

There's a lot of history between these two programs.  Snyder was coaching with Hayden Fry at North Texas before making the move to the University of Iowa in 1978.  Dan McCarney had played for Iowa and was working as a graduate assistant when Fry took over.  He was the youngest on the staff, but Fry was impressed with him and asked him to stay on to coach the tight ends, for a $6000 raise.   They coached together for 10 years before Snyder came to wildcat land.  The two are good friends, and in a press conference this week, he even referred to Coach as "Snydes".  Can you imagine being close enough to Snyder to call him that in a press conference?  No you cannot.  

Kansas State Wildcats

 

This effort, this form, this unity, this teamwork, this way, every play.  Okay?  

Players to watch
#50 Tre Walker - Linebacker.  Tre has had two quiet games to start the season, and I think he's ready to bust out.  North Texas will try like crazy to run the ball, and that gives Tre plenty of opportunities for tackles for loss.  Given the nature of this trap game, he will also play a big role in making sure everyone's mind is right come kick-off.  No slacking, defense.  I want to see Miami level energy all game long.
#8 Angelo Pease - Running Back.  If this game goes according to plan, we should get to play a lot of our #2's to avoid injuries before conference play.  If Hubert looks good early, Pease should take over in the second half.  This is as good a time as any for him to finally shake off the rust and learn to follow his blockers.  Please, Pease.  Just run straight.
#24 Nigel Malone - Cornerback.  The game plan should be to force North Texas to throw the ball.  If our pass coverage improves, and we force North Texas to throw where we want them to throw, when we want them to throw, Malone should have a big day.  He gets better the more film he sees, and I expect him to improve with each game.  

Strengths
Run Defense - We are allowing 2.5 yards per carry on the season and held speedy Miami to 1.9 yards per carry last week.  Wouldn't it be fun to reduce that number to an even 2 yards per carry heading into conference play?  Just imagine all the tackles for loss that would require.  Yum.
Punt return unit - K-State is currently 3rd in the nation in punt returns.  North Texas is 101st.  If we can stuff the run game and keep North Texas punting, we should be able to play with great field position all day long.  Ty-ler Lock-ett, clap, clap, clap, clap, clap.

Weaknesses
Passing game - North Texas is actually ranked very high in pass defense statistics, especially when you consider that they played LSU earlier this season.  If Klein gets overly confident and makes bad throws, he could get surprised by interceptions.  North Texas has four on the season.  This is not a game to be sloppy.  I'd like to see Chris Harper's number called a few more times and maybe one or two deep balls early.
Playbook - It's a tricky game, because we have the personnel and leadership to make this a relatively vanilla victory.  Unfortunately, the only way that works is if the team shows up to play in the first quarter like last week.  I'm not quite sure I believe that we're to that level of consistency just yet.  I can't decide if Coach will want to try out some new things in this game to get practice for OU next week, or if he'll keep it vanilla and then bust out surprises next week, or play in a way that targets our weaknesses so that guys get some game time experience to work through those mistakes before conference play.   I'm overthinking it.  Realistically, we shouldn't have weaknesses in this game.  Hopefully I'll still agree with that on Sunday. 

Trap level
Threat level midnight.  It's basically the definition of a trap game.  Third game at home.  Coming off a blowout victory over a marquee opponent.   Huge conference opener next week.  General sense of apathy from fans and the media.  Jumped 6 spots in the polls.  On and on and on.  Luckily this team has strong leadership from Klein and Brown and motivated back-ups like Sams and Mueller who want to get on the field.  I think this game will be uglier than it should be if K-State shows up sleepy.   

Keys to victory
Play smart, show up early, swarm the run.  Success breeds two things in this type of game.  Complacency and over-confidence.  If the defense shows up lethargic, North Texas will burn them for big gains on the ground all game long.  If the offense is feeling overly confident after last week's fireworks, they could fumble, drop passes, get too fancy with the running game and get themselves hurt.  We'll know if the team leadership is for real by the end of the first quarter. 

Goal of the week
#6 - Self Discipline.  Do it right and don't accept less.  Chris Fowler might not like it, but the stats count, regardless of the opponent.  Every snap is an opportunity to improve.  Don't waste it.

Prediction
This game should tell us a lot about the mental toughness and leadership of this team.  If they come out soft, look out.  If they come out like they did last week, the winning mentality is here to stay.  Can they be the first K-State team ever to open the season with three straight games over 50 points?  I say yes.  K-State wins it, 56-9.