K-State vs. KU preview

 

The Sunflower Showdown.  It's a weird game. Let's just get that out there first.  In the jam-packed, talent-filled, offense fueled Big 12, K-State fans rarely feel confident on game day.  Every game requires careful execution, brilliant schemes and a dash of magic for survival.  Except for the KU game.  In Snyder's 20 years, he's lost to KU 4 times.  In those 20 games, K-State has 698 points to KU's 260.  Even though it's an in-state rivalry, it's a hard game to get worked up about.

However, I'm personally indebted to the Sunflower Showdown.  The first K-State football game I ever watched was the Sunflower Showdown on October 6, 1994.  We won, 21-13.  I remember that I was in the third grade and my teacher was a K-State fan and the other third grade teacher was a KU fan.  They had both classes make predictions about the game and I came home and asked Mom and Dad if we could watch it.  As K-State alums they were happy to cheer on the Cats, but remembered all too clearly their years as students during the Futility U era.  Turns out, 1994 was a pretty good time to start watching K-State football again.  I shudder to think what my life would have been like had I missed that day of school. 

Kansas Jayhawks (1-3)

Players to Watch
#24, Safety: Bradley McDougald.  McDougald is their most consistent player on defense, with 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles.  The line will need to protect Collin this week, and McDougald is enemy #1.
#3, Running Back: Tony Pierson.  After amassing 244 yards in the first two games of the year, Pierson cooled to just 65 in the last two, but I think he's the most dynamic member of the Jayhawk offense.  He has enough speed to get away from us if we're sloppy with our tackling up front and he seems to get better with confidence.  He also has tremendous skills as a return specialist, so Truman and Burns better be ready.  Arthur may need to "dispense some judgment with his pads" in the first quarter to keep him in line.
#12, Wide Receiver: Christian Matthews.  They used Matthews in the wildcat against Northern Illinois and had a fair degree of success.  We haven't been great at defending the wildcat so far this year and you don't want to give Weis any degree of confidence with trick plays or he'll start emptying the playbook. 

Strengths
Turnover margin. KU is crazy consistent in one key area: creating turnovers.  It's kind of spooky how good they are at it.  It's also spooky how few points they score off those turnovers.  This will be a good opportunity for us to learn how to protect the ball against strip-happy defenses.
Third down defense.  KU is allowing third down conversions just 34% of the time this season.  We'll need to be good on first down in order to sustain drives and play the game we want to play.  Again, momentum is key in a rivalry game and if we piddle around with 3 and outs like we did against North Texas, it could get ugly.

Weaknesses
Fourth quarter. The Jayhawks have a dickens of a time finishing games.  Their game plan in the 4th quarter is so contrary to any success they've had in the rest of the game that it almost looks pre-planned.  To that end, in two of their three losses so far this season, they've blown double digit fourth quarter leads.  Hopefully this game isn't close in the fourth, but if it is, our finishing strength should be an advantage here.
Passing under pressure. Weis gave a terrifying interview earlier this year about how he "motivates" his quarterbacks by figuring out how to emotionally destroy them in one minute or less.  Dayne Crist looks the part of an exhausted, terrified kid who forgot that football could also be fun.  As soon as the game is on the line, or the pressure is in his face, or the defense looks a bit odd, he closes his eyes and throws up a prayer.  Nigel Malone will be happy to answer that prayer for you, Dayne.

Bill Snyder has always said that he stays at K-State because of the people.  I wonder if anyone ever says that about KU?  I'm guessing Charlie Weis doesn't. 

Fun Facts

KU first year coaches have not fared well against Snyder.  Let's take a look, shall we?

2010 - Turner Gill loses to Snyder for the first time, 59-7.
2002 - Mark Mangino loses to Snyder for the first time, 64-0.
1997 - Terry Allen loses to Snyder for the first time, 48-16.
I can see why new coaches preferred to focus on their rivalry with Missouri.

Due to conference realignment, we've played KU in Lawrence for the past two years.  Due to Bill Snyder, we've also scored 59 points in each of those two games.  Playing on the road could be a strength for KU, because at least in Manhattan there's a full house.  Then again, they're 1-24 in true road games in the past 29 years against top ten teams, so... maybe not.   

Kansas State Wildcats (4-0)

 

I love this picture of happy Snyder, but I can't help thinking that Mom wouldn't have liked his messy hair.  I think he looks almost as happy as the time Emily brought him some chocolate chip cookies.

Players to Watch
#3, Wide Receiver: Chris Harper.  Chris had a huge catch against OU and played a very strong game catching and blocking.  I'm still waiting for that break-out performance, and the KU game would be a great opportunity for him to get his confidence back.  Lockett was the receiver of the game last year - this year could be the Wichita native's turn.
#37, Fullback: Braden Wilson.  Braden has been a blocking machine so far this year, leading the way for our soul-crushing ground attack.  Braden's a Kansas kid, which usually means that Coach calls his number a few more times against KU.  If he hangs on to the ball and picks up some good blocks from Hubert, Braden could have his best game yet.
#44, Defensive End: Ryan Mueller.  Mueller started tweeting about this game two hours after the OU victory.  He's ready to hit some people and I can't wait to see it.

Strengths
Kicking game.  KU is lousy in all aspects of the kicking game, which lines up perfectly for us.  Lockett had a kick return for a touchdown last year and KU has already given up three touchdowns on kick returns on the season.  I'd put good money on another K-State non-offensive touchdown in this game.
Ground attack.  We have so many weapons on the ground with Collin and John and Braden and Tyler and Angelo and, and, and.  We might not even need the requisite super successful two tight end plays to win this game because KU is ranked 90th in rushing defense and that's just not going to cut it.  

Weaknesses
Secondary.  Another week, another complaint about the pass defense.  The coverage is getting better, and I appreciate that we're making sure that the play stays in front.  That usually leads to lots of catches over the middle to wide open receivers, but pans out in the red zone.  I'm sure that Coach Hayes has determined that that's the best way to utilize our strengths, but it's still frustrating, especially against unranked opponents.  I'll be looking for baby steps.
Success hangover.  Historically, we haven't played very well after big victories.  I think one of the keys to our success last year was the fact that we rarely won a game by double digits.  The one time we did, against KU, we came out flat the next week and got hammered by OU at home.  I have faith that this game means enough to the players that the coaches will be able to get through to them, but the North Texas memories are still fresh.  

Trap Level
Lowish.  It's a rivalry game that means quite a bit to the Kansas kids in the program and it's always a big game for Coach.  Though KU has been pretty much a joke this season, Weis has the ability to surprise.  We need to make sure we play solid defense all game long to avoid any sort of sloppy mistakes that make the game closer than it should be.

Keys to Victory
Protect the ball, show up on defense, avoid the silly penalties.  KU hangs around games by creating turnovers, and if they figure out how to turn those opportunities into points, they could suddenly become very dangerous.  I'm looking at you, Hubert.  The defense was sluggish in the North Texas game but came back strong against OU.  In a rivalry game like this, I expect to see clean tackles, hard hits and lots-o-sacks.  Rivalry games tend to breed stupid penalties, and in the few times that we've had trouble with KU, penalties played a key role.  So far this season, K-State has averaged two penalties per game for the past four games.  As Collin said this week in his press conference - that's two penalties too many.

Goal of the week
#4 Improve.  K-State is coming off their biggest victory since 2003.  This team has a history of responding poorly to success, and they've had two weeks to enjoy their top 10 ranking.  If this team is truly a top 10 team, we should see vast improvement in all of the skill areas coming out of the bye week.  

Prediction
Snyder gets his third 50 point victory in a row and the lynch mob secures their first shut out. 52-0, K-State.