K-State vs. Oregon Preview: Fiesta Bowl 2013

Confession: I'm not a big fan of the bowl system.  It used to be a fun way to spend the first day of the year, because the first day of the year used to be stuffed with games, all day long.  This year we were down to one game by 4 in the afternoon.  Bowl season is the only time I really notice how much TV has changed college football.  But I digress.  My beef with the bowl system is that there are so few good games where both teams feel a sense of accomplishment and satisfaction with their draw.  Fans are apathetic, stadiums are empty, games are sloppy and coaches are already looking ahead to the next season and the next job and the next recruiting class.

Fortunately for us, this is one of the good ones.

Oregon Ducks (11-1)

 

Yep.  I'm putting my bias in the pictures now.  You don't even get a whole picture to yourself, Ducks.  

Players to watch 
Marcus Mariota - Mariota is one of the freshmen sensations, joining Johnny Manziel in the year of overrated youngsters.  He's supposedly good, and all the sports guys are just drooling over the possibility of him having a great night and showing up that old man earnest, Collin Klein.  I think Meshak Williams wins this contest, but I might be a teensy bit biased. 

Kenjon Barner and De'Anthony Thomas - So. Much. Speed.  Far faster and far more consistent than Miami, these two are the real threats to our happiness, given the recent troubles we've had with speedy running backs against Baylor and Texas.  They're game changers.  I hope this is the last we hear of them. 

Dion Jordan and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu - In doing my research for this blog, I was shocked - shocked! to discover that Oregon's defense led the nation with 38 takeaways (24 interceptions, 14 fumble recoveries).  Why doesn't anyone talk about that?  Maybe because they can't pronounce Ekpre-Olomu's name.  I get that. 

Keys to Victory
Win third down - Neither team is spectacular at forcing three and outs, which leads me to think that the offense with more first downs at the end of the game will also be the offense with more points at the end of the game.  Call it a hunch.

Win the turnover battle - If it turns into a shoot-out, turnovers will become vital to victory.  K-State has the best turnover margin in the nation, but Oregon has forced more turnovers.  Momentum will be huge in this game, and there's no better spark than a takeaway.  Watch for it.

Stay focused - There's a lot of distractions for Oregon, and the Fiesta Bowl is not the shining achievement that it is for K-State.  If the pep rallies today were any indication, Oregon fans are not exactly invested in this ball game.  An early deficit or offensive frustration could knock Oregon off course early.  A fast start is crucial.   

Fun Facts
This is the first meeting between Oregon and K-State... ever.  That's actually a super uncommon event, so y'know, pay some attention to it.  We were supposed to play Oregon to open this season, but luckily, Coach Snyder came back and reason was restored to our non-conference schedule.  Oregon wanted out too, and no one had any beef about it until Oregon and K-State became a controversial #1 and #2 in the BCS standings.  Then, all of a sudden, it was our fault that Oregon's strength of schedule was so poor.  It only mattered for about a week, because we both lost on that fateful November 17th evening, just 30 minutes apart.  And now, here we are, no excuses left, no schedules to rearrange.  Our roads were destined to cross.  Ron Prince always gets his pound of flesh.

Chip Kelly is supposedly meeting with three NFL teams this weekend in Phoenix to figure out where he wants to live next year.  If I know this, surely his players and coaches know it too.  That + Fiesta Bowl fatigue + fan apathy + chronic under appreciation of K-State and SnyderBall = Perfect Cat Conditions.  No sports writer outside of Kansas has given K-State any shot of winning this game and Vegas has Oregon by 8.  It would be so sweet to send Kelly out on a loss. 

Bowl season always makes me reflect on K-State football history.  This article from 1989 helps me realize how far we've come, and how long people have been telling us we couldn't.  Wouldn't be right if they picked us to win this game.  That's just not the K-State way.

Another fun thing about the K-State way?  It now involves Modern Family.  It's fun to have a famous alum.

Kansas State Wildcats (11-1)

 

I love seeing Coach smile.

Players to watch

Collin Klein - I was listening to the K-State HDTV call of the Texas game today and Stan Weber mentioned that watching Collin run for a touchdown at BSFS for the last time almost brought a tear to his eye.  Even listening to it made me emotional.  Klein's never played his best in the off-season, but I'll just be happy to see him on our side, one last time. 

Tyler Lockett - I know that Chris Harper is the Oregon transfer and has the story, but did you also remember that this is Baby Lockett's first bowl game?  He was injured during the Cotton Bowl so the healthy receivers decided to drop 90% of what was thrown at them, as a reminder of the talent left behind on the sideline.  This year - he's healthy and ready to go.  We'll need his speed and his smarts and his sticky hands to keep the offense rolling.

Ty Zimmerman - Ty's back!  I am so excited.  Are you so excited?  He also had the funniest line at the pep rally that even made Coach giggle. Oh Ty.  I've missed you so.

Arthur Brown - Last game for big game Arthur in a K-State uniform.  Last year he tried to climb over that Arkansas guy.  This year, I think he'll make it over anyone who dares step to him.  People "in the know" keep dismissing K-State because of Oregon's speed.  Apparently they've all forgotten about #4.  Please tune in for a refresher. 

Keys to Victory 
Defensive swarm - Oregon's offense looks a lot like ours when ours is on fire.  Trouble is, Oregon's offense catches fire a little more often than ours.  The best way to contain that blaze is to win first and second down.  Keep them behind schedule with short gains on first and second down, force them to throw on third down and hope the defense has gotten stronger and faster in the last month.  It will require the defense to get off blocks, tackle as a team, and, in general, swarm like mad.  We did it against West Virginia - no reason why we can't do it again.

Win the hidden yardage - Our kickoff coverage unit has given up some huge plays during the second half of the season.  Against a team with speed and offense to spare, we'd better have those coverage problems corrected.  Winning the hidden yardage makes it that much easier to execute our game plan.

No penalties - Ever notice how off track we get on offense and defense when a penalty call doesn't go our way?  It's the one bit of mental toughness that Snyder teams have never quite mastered.  Teams should really just take a shot after we get a penalty.  I bet the chances of success go up by at least 75%.  The only solution I know of is to eliminate penalties entirely.  I'm looking at you, Mueller.  

Goal of the Week:
#13: Expect to win.  It's been 10 years since we've won a bowl game.  Even so, I'm pretty sure this senior class expects to go out on a win to become the first 12 win team in K-State football history. 

Prediction: 
Wouldn't it be fun to win a wild one?  Like all those nailbiters in 2011?  I can't imagine a more fitting ending.  Though I suppose I'd settle for a blow-out.  K-State wins it, 42-40.