K-State vs. Baylor preview

Last year's Baylor game in Manhattan was the most pure, unadulterated joy I have ever experienced. Being in that stadium as it erupted, yelling and screaming and hollering and contributing to the hysteria was the best experience I've ever had as a K-State fan.  

Now, it's one year later and we're headed to Waco with a #1 ranking and a bus full of battered warriors.  I can't help but hold my breath for the salute penalty in the end zone or the new helmet rule screwing us over at the worst possible time.  It's all going so well, and it feels like an epic trick.  I know I should just be enjoying the ride, but can anyone ever really do that after 1998?

Baylor Bears (4-5)

 

This face is the goal.

Players to Watch
#2, Wide Receiver: Terrance Williams - Terrance and Tevin are the go-to wide receivers in Baylor's offense but don't get it twisted.  Terrance is the one who averages 159 receiving yards per game and leads the NCAA in overall receiving yards.  Tevin is just a boy compared to those grown man stats.  This is a tough game for the secondary, but I want Bubba on #2.

#11, Quarterback: Nick Florence - Bad news: Florence passes for an average of 367 yards per game, which ranks second in the NCAA.  Good news: he's also last in the Big 12 when it comes to turnovers with 11 interceptions.  It took a serious amount of ball hawking to survive OSU, at home, with a healthy Zimmerman.  Nigel better be ready to start catching some of those balls that keep hitting him in the numbers.  No push-ups, #24.  

#25, Running Back: Lache Seastrunk - In addition to having a super cool name, Lache has really turned it up in the last two games. This is particularly helpful for Baylor since their starting running back, Jarred Salubi, just loves turning the ball over.  Seastrunk transferred from Oregon, so it would make sense that he would be the player to give us fits on Saturday.  The run defense has looked a little looser without Walker, but Childs has closed the gap quickly.  Seastrunk will be a slippery devil, and Baylor's passing game will spread the defense thin.  We're going to need solid assignment football from the linebackers in this one. 

Keys to Victory
Keep the defense off the field.  Baylor is currently allowing opponents to convert on third down 58.9 percent of the time.  No bueno.  Our defense may not be excellent against the pass, but it's good enough to keep you from scoring every time you have the ball.  If you let us convert our third downs 60% of the time, with your woeful rush defense, you'll be lucky to have the ball for 15 minutes.

Keep the offense balanced.  If Baylor's strategy is to throw the ball 72 times, great.  It will probably work the first 22 times and then fail miserably in those final 50 that they really, really need.  Our secondary gives up some yards at the beginning, but they always adjust and improve and find a way to make stops.  They've only given up 3 scores of 20 yards or more and I don't expect that number to suddenly fall off a cliff in Waco.  Without the running game, Nick Florence will become way too familiar with Adam Davis and Meshak Williams.  Nightmarishly familiar.

Keep the ball to yourself.  Baylor has a bit of a problem with turnovers.  I already mentioned that Mr. Florence has 11 interceptions all to himself.  The running backs have played their own part in the turnover tale, providing 6 lost fumbles on the season.  K-State is #1 in turnover margin.  It's not that I don't think Baylor can play mistake-free football, it's just that Baylor wouldn't be Baylor if they played mistake-free football.  And, as Baylor fans well know, not even RG3 escapes K-State without an interception.    

Fun Facts

Fun with Math: The Bears have only held one conference opponent (KU) to under 35 points.  K-State comes in averaging 42.2 points and has allowed 30 points at most, once this season.  Baylor currently averages 42.7 points a game, but were held to just 21 against the two teams with a solid rush defense.  Why yes, Mike Stoops.  That was directed at you.  Please consider yourself insulted.

Baylor is our 4th opponent that ranks in the top 11 in total offense and scoring offense.  We held the other three to an average of 153.7 yards and 21.8 points under their norm.  Those other three teams may have passed for an average of 300 yards, but when it comes down to points they ended up with just 6 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.  Combined.  Think you can reverse that, Bears?  It might be hard, considering you are dead last in total defense.  (What happened to you, Bennett?)  Should be more difficult to score all those points if your defense is too busy hogging all the playing time.  Though, you could always try the Joe DeForest approach and just let us score in quick 2 minute increments.  Just a suggestion.  Collin would appreciate the inflated stats for his Heisman campaign. 

Snyderball stat of the week: The Cats average starting field position is at the 41 yard line, 4 yards better than anyone else in the FBS.  Conversely, they hold their opponents to an average starting field position at the 27 yard line.  The 14 yard differential is also best in the FBS by nearly 5 yards.  Check and mate.

Kansas State Wildcats (10-0)  

This man is the key.

Players to Watch
#2, Safety: Ty Zimmerman - The buzz on campus is that Ty will be out for this game with a broken leg.  Ouch.  However, the last time I predicted that, he played the whole game, so I'm sticking him here just in case.  The secondary will be tested, and tested, and then tested some more in Waco and if we don't have Ty coordinating things, it could be ugly for a half.  Thomas Ferguson is his back-up, and while he is certainly a talented athlete, this is a very deep deep end for him to jump into.  He'll need lots of help from Bubba and Jarard to cut down on the big plays over the middle.  Say a prayer or two. 

#33, Running Back: John Hubert - Huuuuubert is a Waco native who was somehow overlooked by Baylor because of his size.  Um, what?  Recruiting is a fickle beast.  It turned out great for us, and Hubert had one of his biggest games last year against Baylor's porous run defense.  He's primed for a huge homecoming game this year too.  Run free, 33.  We'll make sure you hear the cheers. 

#24, Cornerback: Nigel Malone - I think we're going to need a lot of turnovers to keep momentum in our favor this week, especially if Ty is out.  Nigel was our most consistent ball hawk last year but has had trouble securing the catch all season long.  One step at a time Nigel.  Catch, then run.  Catch, then run.  I promise Baylor is not fast enough to stop your pick 6 if you would only remember to catch. it. first.

Keys to Victory
Avoid the big play.  K-State has only allowed 3 touchdowns of 20+ yards.  Baylor relies on big plays to keep things moving, especially if we can use our running game to play time of possession football.  If we can make them drive the length of the field, or consistently have to get 10 yards three downs at a time, their mistakes will eventually catch up to them. 

Stop the run.  Baylor's offense kept them in the OU game far longer than anyone expected.  It held them within a touchdown of upsetting West Virginia.  It allowed them to escape a Friday night upset special with Sun Belt team of the year University of Louisiana-Monroe.  They should be able to score on anybody.  How then, did offensive bottom dwellers Iowa State and TCU hold them to 21 points?  By stopping the run so they could focus on the pass.  I say it here every week.  Force your opponent to be one-dimensional, protect the ball, win the field position battle and you'll give your defense time to slow down any opponent. 

Diversify the passing game.  The other injury reports this week have speculated that Curry Sexton is out with a broken collar bone and Tyler Lockett is out with a high ankle sprain.  If that's true, then Chris Harper is going to need to get more than one reception a game and we're going to have to use our tight ends more effectively.  I know that Tannahill is banged up, but we still haven't seen Andre McDonald in an offensive formation this season.  I hope the back-ups are ready.  We might get a Klein to Klein pass after all, god help us. 

Trap Level
This one's pretty lethal.  Everyone is battered and bloody and bruised and tired and excited and scared and #1 and tired.  I know they're all looking forward to that off week, but they have to get through this one first, with energy and enthusiasm and discipline for a solid four quarters.  Beware of Baylor's explosiveness and beware of vengeance for last year.  I'm sure they'd love nothing more than to erase a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter and steal a 1 point victory from us.  That 4th quarter defense needs to tighten up.  

Goal of the Week
#15: Leadership.  We're #1 in the BCS for the first time ever.  We're on the road in Waco, at night, against an underrated and explosive team.  Everyone is injured.  Back-ups are getting significant playing time for the first time ever.  Everyone is worried about the bubble bursting.  Everyone is aware of 1998.  You can always count on leadership from Arthur, Collin, Ty and BJ.  But what if Collin gets hurt?  What if Arthur goes down?  What if Ty (as expected) doesn't play?  Who will step up?  Who's ready?  Are you?

Prediction
K-State should win this one by double digits.  The injuries worry me the most, but when it comes down to execution, I think our players and coaches will be able to make the necessary adjustments to be successful in Waco.  It may not always be pretty, but I think we can escape without any last minute Arthur Brown theatrics.  K-State lives on: 45-24.