K-State vs. Oklahoma State preview

K-State lost this game last year in a heartbreaker, falling short in the final seconds, on the 5 yard line.  To the casual observer, it was a success, a sign of life and hope after the embarrassing OU beat down the week before.  To Klein and company, it was painful, but gave them the confidence they needed to believe they were an elite program.  The week after, they won a 4 OT battle with A&M, even though Klein was essentially held together with band-aids and spit. This year it's OSU looking for validation, after penalties, youth, and injuries at the QB position have kept them inconsistent and stuck in the middle of the Big 12 pack.  It's bound to be a good day for someone. 

On a personal note, I'd really rather it be a good day for me.  Steven and I got engaged before the OSU football game in 2010, and we lost.  Then we got married before the OSU game in 2011, and we lost.  Now that we're all legit and stuff, isn't it our turn to win?  I'm pretty sure we've earned it.  That's got to count for something. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2)

 

Is it Cowboys or Cowpokes?  What's the difference?

Players to Watch
#1, Running Back: Joseph Randle - Randle already has 891 yards and 9 touchdowns for the season.  Explain to me again how we let this Wichita kid get away?  He's fast and patient and skilled and strong and knows Arthur Brown very, very well.  The two have played against each other since high school, and it's a match-up that will be crucial on Saturday.  If anyone can show Randle the error of his ways, it's Judge Brown.

#11, Quarterback: Wes Lunt - Lunt has had a scary season already, getting knocked out in the third game of the season and staying out until J.W. Walsh suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago.  Since then, Lunt carried his team to a comeback victory against a defensive-minded TCU.  He looked a little rusty in the first half last week, but seemed to have his timing back by the end of the game.  We'll see if Meshak can disrupt that timing on Saturday.

#37, Linebacker: Alex Elkins - I'm sort of afraid that I'm underestimating the OSU defense, and Elkins and Cooper Bassett are two big reasons why.  They play hard and smart and they could give our running game fits.  They really only gave up one touchdown to TCU last week in the first quarter and then locked it down for the rest of the game, giving Lunt and the offense plenty of time to get things going.  We'll need to play hard for all four quarters.  This team won't quit. 

Keys to Victory
Protect the quarterback.  The offensive line has only allowed 3 sacks on the year, but their back-up QB, J.W. Walsh is already out for the season and Lunt has been banged up too.  If Meshak and Adam get their hands on him early, we could be seeing Clint Chelf for the first time this season.  You don't want to resort to your third string QB, on the road, against the #2 team in the country.  Unless you're a fan of the #2 team in the country, of course.
  
Third down conversions. Oklahoma State is second in the nation in third down defense.  They will need to keep the K-State offense on the sidelines if they hope to spring the upset.  No one is better than the Cats in close games and no one is better at winning those close games on third down.  Good luck. 

Keep the offense balanced.  If the run game isn't working and Lunt is forced to throw, the pass defense will create turnovers.  If the pass game isn't working and Randle is forced to carry the load, the rush defense will find a way to get stops on third and short.  In order to have any chance of keeping the Cats defense off-balance, OSU will need an extremely balanced attack on offense.  

Fun Facts

Oklahoma State has the series lead at 36 wins to our 22.  They've also won 3 of the last 4 and remain the only Big 12 team that Snyder hasn't beaten since his triumphant return.  In fact, Snyder hasn't beaten OSU in Manhattan since 2002.  No one on the current K-State roster has beaten Oklahoma State and they've been practicing all week with last year's score (52-45) on the scoreboard.
 
Oklahoma State has had a scoring drive of less than 2 minutes in the last 34 games.  K-State has allowed 4 scoring drives of less than 2 minutes this season.  3 were field goals, 1 was a Miami touchdown.  Oklahoma State is the third straight team the Cats have faced that rank in the top ten in scoring offense.  I can't wait to play an SEC team in the national championship.  That'll be such a nice break for our defense.   

Player connections.  Cooper Bassett initially committed to K-State back in the Prince days and became fast friends with Collin Klein and Travis Tannahill.  He's now the starting Defensive End for OSU and says he won't help Collin up if he manages to sack him during the game.  But he won't take a cheap shot.  Arthur Brown and Joseph Randle have lined up against each other since their high school days.  Tyler Lockett suffered a season ending kidney laceration last year against the team that didn't try to recruit him.  Tramaine Thompson and Andre McDonald are two other overlooked Okies who have found a successful home with the K-State family.  There's plenty of motivation on both sides, and Oklahoma State would love to give K-State the Iowa State treatment.  

Kansas State Wildcats (8-0)

Our flags are cooler than your flags.

Players to Watch
#26, Linebacker: Jarell Childs - Jarell has been a beast lately and I haven't given him the proper credit.  He had an amazing game last week and would've scored his second defensive touchdown of the year, if not for Ryan Mueller's unfortunate lapse in judgment.  With Walker gone and Arthur a little banged up, Childs will need to play hard and smart to contain Randle. 

#33, Running Back: John Hubert - It's about time for Hubert to break 100 again.  Klein's been showing him up the last couple of games and he seems to be losing some ground to Pease.  Oklahoma State's pass defense looked strong against Boykin and the Frogs last week, and the ground game may be crucial in this one.  Look for Hubert to get his swag back. 

#21, Linebacker: Jonathan Truman - Now that Tre Walker is out for (potentially) the season with a knee injury, it's Truman's time to shine.  He's had some positive plays throughout the season, but he's never played against a team in the first half and he's never played every snap.  Walker plays most often against running teams, so I'm sure it cuts even deeper that he has to sit this one out.  Hopefully Truman's ready.

Keys to Victory
Contain Randle.  Oklahoma State has the best offensive yardage in the Big 12, led by the top rushing attack in the league.  A large percentage of that rushing attack comes from Joseph Randle.  If we can shut down Randle and force Lunt to pass all night, we'll be in great shape.  

Turnovers. When these two teams met last year, Oklahoma State had the best turnover margin in the league.  This year, K-State holds that record and will need to protect it to stay out of trouble.  Oklahoma State caused multiple turnovers last week against TCU and they have enough speed on defense to make it hurt.  So far this season, teams haven't been able to score a single point off a K-State turnover, while K-State has scored 90 points off the turnovers they've caused.  That's a tradition worth preserving. 

Protect the middle.  In the second half of last year's game, Brandon Weeden destroyed our pass defense by completing long passes over the middle whenever he wanted.  In last week's game against TCU, freshman QB Wes Lunt looked his best connecting passes over the middle whenever he wanted.  If we want to avoid another shoot-out, we need to be better in the middle.  

Trap Level
K-State should win all of the games left on their schedule.  Therefore, each week becomes a big, gaping, tragedy-filled trap.  This one is at home, in a late kick-off, without Tre Walker, against a team that has been impossible to predict.  K-State surprised everyone by staying in the game until the last second last year.  OSU has the potential to return the favor.  DANGER-DANGER-DANGER.

Goal of the Week
#9 Eliminate mistakes.  From here on out, it's all about consistency and unity and improvement and smart football.  Take nothing for granted, stay humble, stay hungry and above all, stay focused on the family.  We win and we're in.  We lose and we're screwed. 

Prediction
I think this game will be uncomfortably close in the first half, much like last week against Tech.  If we're not ahead at half, be worried.  But not too worried.  I think we have the toughness to win it in the fourth, hopefully by double digits.  K-State wins, 35-21.  

 

This is the year we'll honor our vows.